Jeff Flake Vulnerable in Potential GOP Primary

Jeff Flake Vulnerable in Potential GOP Primary

Surveys | November 17, 2016

(Christopher Halloran / Shutterstock.com)

RESULTS HERE > Full Survey

KANSAS CITY, MO – Remington Research Group has completed a public survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in Arizona. The survey was conducted November 15 through November 16, 2016. 1,122 likely 2018 Republican primary voters participated in the survey and the margin of error is +/-2.93%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee.

The data show that Donald Trump is popular amongst Arizona’s Republican primary electorate. 82% hold a favorable view of the President-elect while only 10% view him unfavorably. In contrast, incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Flake is viewed unfavorably by roughly half of Republicans. 30% view Flake favorably while 49% view the Senator in a negative light.

Remington tested a series of potential challenges to Flake in 2018. These challengers include State Treasurer Jeff DeWit and 2016 U.S. Senate candidate Kelli Ward.

Ballot results for each matchup are below:

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake and Kelli Ward, for whom would you vote?

Jeff Flake: 35%
Kelli Ward: 35%
Undecided: 30%

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake and Jeff DeWit, for whom would you vote?

Jeff Flake: 33%
Jeff DeWit: 42%
Undecided: 25%

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake, Kelli Ward and Jeff DeWit, for whom would you vote?

Jeff Flake: 30%
Kelli Ward: 15%
Jeff DeWit: 38%
Undecided: 17%

Flake’s high water mark in a contested primary is 35% against Kelli Ward and he is currently down nine points against Jeff DeWit. In a potential three way matchup against DeWit and Ward, Flake trails by eight points.

“Jeff Flake is currently in a very precarious position,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group. “The data show that Flake’s image amongst Republican primary voters is in bad shape and that carries over to the ballot where he only realizes 35% support on the high end. It remains early but he is certainly the most vulnerable incumbent to a primary challenge.”

Remington Research Group is a polling firm that specializes in automated IVR technology. The firm was founded to provide more reliable and affordable polling for campaigns throughout the country. Remington Research Group accurately predicted Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado in the 2016 Presidential election and its surveys have been featured in RealClearPolitics, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, the Wall Street Journal, 538 and numerous local media throughout the United States.


New Battleground Polls Show Clinton Recovering from Slip, but Race Still Close

New Battleground Polls Show Clinton Recovering from Slip, but Race Still Close

Surveys | November 6, 2016

KANSAS CITY, MO – Axiom Strategies and Remington Research Group surveyed eight battleground states Tuesday, Nov. 1, thru Wednesday, Nov. 2. These are the same eight states polled on Oct. 23 and Oct. 30 by Axiom and Remington.

In the Oct. 30th survey, we found a race trending toward Donald Trump following the FBI announcement of a renewed investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. At that point, Trump led in Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio and was within the margin of error in Colorado and Pennsylvania.

Now, we find the race has tightened in most battleground states. Clinton has pulled away in Wisconsin – she now leads by eight points there – and Trump still holds leads just at the margin of error in Florida and North Carolina. Clinton leads Colorado and Pennsylvania by only one point just as Trump leads Nevada and Ohio by one point.

It appears the numbers have leveled out a week after the announcement of the renewed FBI investigation of Clinton.

Pennsylvania has inched closer to a tie race in each of the past two surveys by Remington Research, down from a three-point Clinton lead on Oct. 23, to a two-point lead on Oct. 30, and now just a one-point lead. In Colorado, Clinton has weathered the fallout of the FBI investigation better, dipping from a two-point lead on Oct. 23 to a one-point lead on Oct. 30 and in the most recent survey, but both remain well within striking distance should Trump’s campaign turn its voters out.

“We’re looking at a margin of error race in seven of the eight battleground states we surveyed. Either one of these candidates could realistically run the table in these seven states. The big question is if Donald Trump can mobilize his voters and get them to the polls, if he can’t then he will lose,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group.

Click here to download the press release.

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Axiom & Remington Research Group Survey Eight Battleground States

Axiom & Remington Research Group Survey Eight Battleground States

Surveys | October 30, 2016

KANSAS CITY, MO – Axiom Strategies and Remington Research Group surveyed eight battleground states Sunday, October 30th. The eight states are the same states that were surveyed one week ago. At the time, Remington found a presidential race that was still very much competitive.

The newest round of polling was conducted on the heels of the FBI renewing an investigation of Hillary Clinton regarding classified emails. These surveys are the first to be publicly released in the country that were fielded after news regarding the FBI investigation broke last Friday.

Significant findings are that Trump has broken a tie in Florida and has opened up a four-point lead over Clinton, closed the gap in Pennsylvania and Colorado and has expanded his leads in Nevada and Ohio. North Carolina remains close with Trump’s three-point lead a week ago now down to a two-point lead.

Last week, we found a presidential race where Hillary Clinton held a clear advantage. This week, we find an increasingly competitive race with just eight days to go. Trump appears to be holding strong in his must-win states and Colorado remains within the margin of error. The data also show that Pennsylvania has moved into the margin of error category.

“The presidential race remains very competitive as we move into the final stretch. Hillary maintains an advantage leading in Colorado and Pennsylvania, but at this point anything can happen,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group.

Axiom Strategies is the largest Republican political consulting firm in the country. The firm was founded in 2005 by Jeff Roe. Axiom Strategies is a full service political consulting firm providing general consulting, digital and direct voter contact.

Remington Research Group is a polling firm founded in an effort to provide more reliable and affordable polling for campaigns throughout the country. Remington Research Group surveys have been featured in RealClearPolitics, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, the Wall Street Journal, 538 and numerous local media throughout the United States.

Click here to download the press release.

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Battleground County Updates and NEW Statewide Surveys in CO, FL, NV, NC, OH, PA, VA & WI

Battleground County Updates and NEW Statewide Surveys in CO, FL, NV, NC, OH, PA, VA & WI

Surveys | October 23, 2016

KANSAS CITY, MO – In early June, Axiom Strategies set out to find a select group of counties that have historically been indicators for statewide presidential election results. Axiom, in collaboration with Remington Research Group, analyzed individual county election results dating back to 2000 in order to select areas that best fit our criteria. The search began by identifying counties that had correctly predicted the statewide result in each of the last four presidential elections. We then chose the counties that consistently matched the overall statewide result within a few percentage points. At the time, seven counties that reside in seven battleground states fit our criteria and were selected to be Axiom’s Battleground Counties.

Polls conducted in June and July showed strong Trump leads in most Battleground Counties. But by September 8th, Trump had seen his mid-Summer gains completely wiped away with the exception of Washoe County, NV, where his lead had grown from 12 points to 17 points. Additionally, three new counties, which were added to monitor whether certain original Battleground Counties may have been outliers to their normally predictive nature, showed much more competitive races in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Hamilton County, OH, showed Clinton with a single point lead compared to Trump’s seven-point lead in Sandusky County, OH. In Pennsylvania, Northampton County showed Trump with an eight-point lead compared to the 15-point lead he enjoyed in working class Luzerne County. The race seemed to be slowly moving towards Hillary Clinton.

In mid-October, with certain counties appearing to possibly be outliers, the decision was made to conduct statewide polling in each of the battleground states. Polling also continued into the ten Axiom Battleground Counties and, as of Oct. 23rd, we find a presidential campaign where Hillary Clinton has the clear advantage over Donald Trump, but we do not find a presidential campaign that is out of reach for Trump. The odds are stacked against Trump, as our data and data from most reliable sources shows, but he has slim leads or is within the margin of error in his must-win states. Trump would need to overcome a deficit in Colorado, break through a current tie in Florida and maintain small leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio to have a chance to accumulate 270 electoral votes. Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania appear to be out of his reach as he is at least three points behind in each of those states in the closing weeks of the campaign. A pathway has been charted, but data also shows that Trump could also be the victim of a clean sweep in these states.

Click here to download the project timeline.

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Three New Counties Added to Axiom Battleground Counties Tracking Conducted by Remington Research

Three New Counties Added to Axiom Battleground Counties Tracking Conducted by Remington Research

Surveys | September 8, 2016

KANSAS CITY, MO – Axiom Strategies and Remington Research have added three new Battleground Counties to the ABC monitoring in order to track the race in an additional swing state, Wisconsin, and monitor whether Sandusky Co. (OH) and Luzerne Co. (PA) may be outliers to their historically predictive nature. Hillary Clinton leads in 4 Battleground Counties, while Trump holds solid leads in 5 and a narrow lead in Florida.

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Rooney Still Leads in FL-19 GOP Primary

Rooney Still Leads in FL-19 GOP Primary

Surveys | August 29, 2016

RESULTS HERE > Full Survey

KANSAS CITY, MO – Remington Research Group has completed a second public and independent survey of likely Republican primary voters in Florida’s 19th Congressional District. The survey was conducted August 29, 2016. 1,119 likely Republican primary voters participated in the survey and the margin of error is +/-2.9%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee. The first survey was conducted August 14 through August 15, 2016.

The data show that Francis Rooney holds 46% of the vote and leads his closest competitor, Chauncey Goss, by 15 points. The other candidate, Dan Bongino trails by 30 points with 16% support. Just 7% of likely Republican voters remain undecided.

The candidates in the Republican primary election for United States Congress are Francis Rooney, Dan Bongino and Chauncey Goss. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Francis Rooney: 46%
Chauncey Goss: 31%
Dan Bongino: 16%
Undecided: 7%

The survey also found that 64% of likely voters have already cast their votes in the race. Of those that say they have voted, Rooney leads Goss by twelve points, 47% to 35%. Bongino garners 15% of the early vote with 3% refusing to say who they voted for.

The results of the first independent survey conducted by Remington Research Group in this campaign were questioned by the trailing candidates. NBC-2 News went as far as to write blatantly false information about the survey in addition to calling the poll “bogus.”

“Remington Research Group conducted a second independent and public survey of this race even with the scrutiny we faced when we released numbers two weeks ago,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group. “Rooney’s lead remains solid and with two thirds of voters having already cast their ballot, this race is all but over.”

Bond continued, “Chauncey Goss alleged that he was tied in his internal polling. It is interesting to note that Goss’ campaign finance reports do not include any payments to polling firms, but either way, tomorrow we will find out who is right.”

Remington Research Group is a polling firm that specializes in automated IVR technology. The firm was founded in an effort to provide more reliable and affordable polling for campaigns throughout the country. Remington Research Group surveys have been featured in RealClearPolitics, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, the Wall Street Journal and numerous local media throughout the United States. For more information visit Remington Research Group


Rooney Leads by Wide Margin

Rooney Leads by Wide Margin

Surveys | August 16, 2016

RESULTS HERE > Full Survey

KANSAS CITY, MO – Remington Research Group has completed a public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Florida’s 19th Congressional District. The survey was conducted August 14 through August 15, 2016. 1,606 likely Republican primary voters participated in the survey and the margin of error is +/-2.4%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee.

The data show that Francis Rooney holds 45% of the vote and leads his closest competitor, Chauncey Goss, by 16 points. The other candidate, Dan Bongino trails by 30 points with 15% support. 11% of likely Republican voters remain undecided.

Q: The candidates in the Republican primary election for United States Congress are Francis Rooney, Dan Bongino and Chauncey Goss. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Francis Rooney: 45%
Chauncey Goss: 29%
Dan Bongino: 15%
Undecided: 11%

In addition to his ballot strength, Rooney possesses the strongest image rating of all Republican candidates. 51% of likely Republican primary voters view him favorably with 24% viewing him unfavorably. Goss is viewed favorably by 43% compared to 25% who view him unfavorably.

Rooney’s support comes from Republican voters who self-identify as very conservative or somewhat conservative. Goss is supported by those who self-identify as moderate or liberal. The survey finds that 79% of likely Republican primary voters consider themselves to be either very conservative or somewhat conservative.

“Francis Rooney is currently in a commanding position. His image remains over 51% and his ballot share is approaching the majority mark,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group. “Given that this is a multi-candidate race; it is hard to imagine a situation where Rooney does not receive at least a plurality.”

Remington Research Group is a polling firm that specializes in automated IVR technology. The firm was founded in an effort to provide more reliable and affordable polling for campaigns throughout the country. Remington Research Group surveys have been featured in RealClearPolitics, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, the Wall Street Journal and numerous local media throughout the United States. For more information visit Remington Research Group


Paul Ryan Dominating Paul Nehlen in WI-1 GOP Primary

Paul Ryan Dominating Paul Nehlen in WI-1 GOP Primary

Surveys | August 4, 2016

RESULTS HERE > Full Survey

KANSAS CITY, MO – Paul Ryan leads his Republican primary challenger, Paul Nehlen, by 66 points five days ahead of the election. Ryan leads with 80% to 14% for Nehlen with 6% undecided.

Paul Ryan’s image in the district mirrors the ballot. Ryan is extremely popular in his district with a favorable rating of 80% compared to an unfavorable rating of just 14%. Nehlen, on the other hand, is viewed unfavorably by 47% of likely Republican primary voters and viewed favorably by just 16%.

The Republican nominee for President, Donald Trump, is somewhat popular in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District with 52% of Republicans viewing Trump favorably and 32% viewing him unfavorably.

“It is clear, according to the most recent data, that Paul Ryan will win by a wide margin on Tuesday. The numbers have moved in Ryan’s favor since we last surveyed this race, indicating likely Republican voters there do not appreciate the attacks on their Congressman,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group.


Axiom Battleground Counties: Monitoring County-Level & Statewide Results in Eight Presidential Battleground States

Axiom Battleground Counties: Monitoring County-Level & Statewide Results in Eight Presidential Battleground States

Surveys | June 6, 2016

KANSAS CITY, MO – Axiom Strategies, in collaboration with Remington Research Group, has studied election results in eight battleground states to identify Axiom’s Battleground Counties. These counties historically reflect statewide results, so monitoring them will be key in analyzing the 2016 presidential race.



OK-1: Incumbent Bridenstine leads challenger Atkinson by 53 points

OK-1: Incumbent Bridenstine leads challenger Atkinson by 53 points

Surveys | June 5, 2016

RESULTS HERE > Full Survey

KANSAS CITY, MO – Survey conducted June 5, 2016. 789 likely 2016 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2016 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/- 3.6% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.