Jeff Flake Vulnerable in Potential GOP Primary

Surveys | November 17, 2016

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RESULTS HERE > Full Survey

KANSAS CITY, MO – Remington Research Group has completed a public survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in Arizona. The survey was conducted November 15 through November 16, 2016. 1,122 likely 2018 Republican primary voters participated in the survey and the margin of error is +/-2.93%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee.

The data show that Donald Trump is popular amongst Arizona’s Republican primary electorate. 82% hold a favorable view of the President-elect while only 10% view him unfavorably. In contrast, incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Flake is viewed unfavorably by roughly half of Republicans. 30% view Flake favorably while 49% view the Senator in a negative light.

Remington tested a series of potential challenges to Flake in 2018. These challengers include State Treasurer Jeff DeWit and 2016 U.S. Senate candidate Kelli Ward.

Ballot results for each matchup are below:

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake and Kelli Ward, for whom would you vote?

Jeff Flake: 35%
Kelli Ward: 35%
Undecided: 30%

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake and Jeff DeWit, for whom would you vote?

Jeff Flake: 33%
Jeff DeWit: 42%
Undecided: 25%

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake, Kelli Ward and Jeff DeWit, for whom would you vote?

Jeff Flake: 30%
Kelli Ward: 15%
Jeff DeWit: 38%
Undecided: 17%

Flake’s high water mark in a contested primary is 35% against Kelli Ward and he is currently down nine points against Jeff DeWit. In a potential three way matchup against DeWit and Ward, Flake trails by eight points.

“Jeff Flake is currently in a very precarious position,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group. “The data show that Flake’s image amongst Republican primary voters is in bad shape and that carries over to the ballot where he only realizes 35% support on the high end. It remains early but he is certainly the most vulnerable incumbent to a primary challenge.”

Remington Research Group is a polling firm that specializes in automated IVR technology. The firm was founded to provide more reliable and affordable polling for campaigns throughout the country. Remington Research Group accurately predicted Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado in the 2016 Presidential election and its surveys have been featured in RealClearPolitics, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, the Wall Street Journal, 538 and numerous local media throughout the United States.