Top Stories

Jeff Flake Vulnerable in Potential GOP Primary

RESULTS HERE > Jeff Flake Vulnerable in AZ

November 17, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

Kansas City, MO – Remington Research Group has completed a public survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in Arizona. The survey was conducted November 15 through November 16, 2016. 1,122 likely 2018 Republican primary voters participated in the survey and the margin of error is +/-2.93%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee.

The data show that Donald Trump is popular amongst Arizona's Republican primary electorate. 82% hold a favorable view of the President-elect while only 10% view him unfavorably. In contrast, incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Flake is viewed unfavorably by roughly half of Republicans. 30% view Flake favorably while 49% view the Senator in a negative light.

Remington tested a series of potential challenges to Flake in 2018. These challengers include State Treasurer Jeff DeWit and 2016 U.S. Senate candidate Kelli Ward.

Ballot results for each matchup are below:

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake and Kelli Ward, for whom would you vote?

Mark Luttrell: 26%
Jeff Flake: 35%
Kelli Ward: 35%
Undecided: 30%

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake and Jeff DeWit, for whom would you vote?

Mark Luttrell: 26%
Jeff Flake: 33%
Jeff DeWit: 42%
Undecided: 25%

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake, Kelli Ward and Jeff DeWit, for whom would you vote?

Mark Luttrell: 26%
Jeff Flake: 30%
Kelli Ward: 15%
Jeff DeWit: 38%
Undecided: 17%

Flake's high water mark in a contested primary is 35% against Kelli Ward and he is currently down nine points against Jeff DeWit. In a potential three way matchup against DeWit and Ward, Flake trails by eight points.

“Jeff Flake is currently in a very precarious position,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group. “The data show that Flake’s image amongst Republican primary voters is in bad shape and that carries over to the ballot where he only realizes 35% support on the high end. It remains early but he is certainly the most vulnerable incumbent to a primary challenge.”

Remington Research Group is a polling firm that specializes in automated IVR technology. The firm was founded to provide more reliable and affordable polling for campaigns throughout the country. Remington Research Group accurately predicted Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado in the 2016 Presidential election and its surveys have been featured in RealClearPolitics, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, the Wall Street Journal, 538 and numerous local media throughout the United States.

Remington in the News

About Remington's Processes
PDF MEMO

Outlined below are the processes used by Remington Research Group for conducting political surveys. This memo - available in PDF format here - will address the following processes:

  • - Instrument Creation
  • - Universe Data Acquisition
  • - Setting Turnout Demographics for Weighting
  • - IVR Deployment
  • - Results & Weighting

Polling Instrument Creation

All surveys from Remington Research Group include a screening question at the beginning to ensure we are only speaking with likely voters. Self-identified demographic questions are also included to ensure we are weighting the interviews correctly post-interview.

Remington does not utilize an intensity ballot (Definitely Candidate A, Probably Candidate A, etc.) in its instruments. Ballots are read stating candidate name and political party affiliation of each candidate. Respondents are then given the choice of each candidate read in addition to an undecided option. We do not branch undecided voters to a “leaners” question where they would indicate which candidate they lean towards. Remington utilizes a rotating ballot to eliminate any bias towards the first choice.

A sample Remington Research Group Instrument is attached to the PDF version of this memo as Addendum A (click to view or download).

No Stratification/Quotas

Remington does not stratify samples. We also do not utilize a quota system when collecting interviews.

Many pollsters only stratify based on age, race, and party registration. Due to their small sample sizes, they may not have a representative sample based on differences in response rates within demographic subgroups by geography. There are likely differences between individuals in the same demographic group depending whether they live in urban, suburban, or rural areas.

Random Samples

For a statewide survey, the goal is to collect a minimum of 1,600 IVR landline interviews and 400 live cell phone interviews. The size of the sample enables us to install our weights, leaving us with a significant effective sample size. Additionally, not using stratification or quota systems allows us to speak with voters that represent every geographic area of the state. Quota systems limit the reach of a survey.

Landline IVR Random Sample: Criteria for voters included is that they possess some type of voter history in the past eight years or be a newly registered voter.

Remington acknowledges that IVR to landlines is not without fault. We have found that IVRs miss certain subsets of voters that are necessary to compile a full sample that is reflective of the electorate. Remington uses live calls to cell phones to capture these subsets of voters that an IVR is unable to. For this reason, Remington pulls random oversamples within chosen subsets for the cell phone component (i.e. African Americans, Hispanics, young voters).

The table below shows the landline and cell samples from the latest polls in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania conducted by pollsters with a FiveThirtyEight rating of A- or higher. As you can see, Remington surveys include live cell sample sizes that are similar to what other pollsters collect but also includes significantly larger landline samples.

The noticeable difference between Remington and other pollsters is the large landline sample. The larger landline sample reduces risk of missing subsets of voters, specifically geographically (urban vs suburban vs rural).

IVR Deployment

Remington Research Group conducts automated telephone surveys using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). This technology radically reduces the expenses related to research and offers much faster survey completions.

In addition to cost and time advantages, IVR technology has enabled us to poll more accurately. Interviewer bias has been reduced to zero by eliminating the inflection and tone of a live caller. Every survey respondent hears the exact same question read in the exact same way. Social desirability bias are also eliminated using IVR mode.

Results & Weighting

The most important aspect when running an automated survey is to weight the responses to mirror the actual turnout demographics for the electorate. Setting the weighting ratio is what separates accurate numbers from inaccurate numbers.

Remington uses hard data from the voter file to appropriate weighting ratios. This means we weight per the participation of actual voters, not per the raw full voter file or Census data.

Remington utilizes traditional weighting methods. We weight per:

  • - Geography (Media Market and Congressional District)
  • - Party Affiliation
  • - Gender
  • - Age
  • - Race

Weighting raw data will always reduce the effective sample size of the survey. Remington’s original samples are large enough to leave an effective sample that is still significant.


New Battleground Polls Show Clinton Recovering from Slip, but Race Still Close

RESULTS & UPDATES HERE > PRESIDENTIAL RACE MONITORING

November 6, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

Axiom Strategies and Remington Research Group surveyed eight battleground states Tuesday, Nov. 1, thru Wednesday, Nov. 2. These are the same eight states polled on Oct. 23 and Oct. 30 by Axiom and Remington and results of all three polls can be found here.

In the Oct. 30th survey, we found a race trending toward Donald Trump following the FBI announcement of a renewed investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. At that point, Trump led in Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio and was within the margin of error in Colorado and Pennsylvania.

Now, we find the race has tightened in most battleground states. Clinton has pulled away in Wisconsin – she now leads by eight points there – and Trump still holds leads just at the margin of error in Florida and North Carolina. Clinton leads Colorado and Pennsylvania by only one point just as Trump leads Nevada and Ohio by one point.

It appears the numbers have leveled out a week after the announcement of the renewed FBI investigation of Clinton.

Pennsylvania has inched closer to a tie race in each of the past two surveys by Remington Research, down from a three-point Clinton lead on Oct. 23, to a two-point lead on Oct. 30, and now just a one-point lead. In Colorado, Clinton has weathered the fallout of the FBI investigation better, dipping from a two-point lead on Oct. 23 to a one-point lead on Oct. 30 and in the most recent survey, but both remain well within striking distance should Trump’s campaign turn its voters out.

“We’re looking at a margin of error race in seven of the eight battleground states we surveyed. Either one of these candidates could realistically run the table in these seven states. The big question is if Donald Trump can mobilize his voters and get them to the polls, if he can’t then he will lose,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group.

See more results and analysis.

Axiom & Remington Research Group Survey Eight Battleground States

First publicly released surveys since FBI announced renewed Clinton email investigation

RESULTS & UPDATES HERE > PRESIDENTIAL RACE MONITORING

October 30, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

Axiom Strategies and Remington Research Group surveyed eight battleground states Sunday, October 30th. The eight states are the same states that were surveyed one week ago. At the time, Remington found a presidential race that was still very much competitive.

The newest round of polling was conducted on the heels of the FBI renewing an investigation of Hillary Clinton regarding classified emails. These surveys are the first to be publicly released in the country that were fielded after news regarding the FBI investigation broke last Friday.

Full results from all eight surveys can be found here.

Significant findings are that Trump has broken a tie in Florida and has opened up a four-point lead over Clinton, closed the gap in Pennsylvania and Colorado and has expanded his leads in Nevada and Ohio. North Carolina remains close with Trump’s three-point lead a week ago now down to a two-point lead.

Last week, we found a presidential race where Hillary Clinton held a clear advantage. This week, we find an increasingly competitive race with just eight days to go. Trump appears to be holding strong in his must-win states and Colorado remains within the margin of error. The data also show that Pennsylvania has moved into the margin of error category.

“The presidential race remains very competitive as we move into the final stretch. Hillary maintains an advantage leading in Colorado and Pennsylvania, but at this point anything can happen,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group.

Axiom Strategies is the largest Republican political consulting firm in the country. The firm was founded in 2005 by Jeff Roe. Axiom Strategies is a full service political consulting firm providing general consulting, digital and direct voter contact.

Remington Research Group is a polling firm founded in an effort to provide more reliable and affordable polling for campaigns throughout the country. Remington Research Group surveys have been featured in RealClearPolitics, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, the Wall Street Journal, 538 and numerous local media throughout the United States.

Battleground County Updates and NEW Statewide Surveys in CO, FL, NV, NC, OH, PA, VA & WI

RESULTS & UPDATES HERE > PRESIDENTIAL RACE MONITORING

October 23, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

In early June, Axiom Strategies set out to find a select group of counties that have historically been indicators for statewide presidential election results. Axiom, in collaboration with Remington Research Group, analyzed individual county election results dating back to 2000 in order to select areas that best fit our criteria. The search began by identifying counties that had correctly predicted the statewide result in each of the last four presidential elections. We then chose the counties that consistently matched the overall statewide result within a few percentage points. At the time, seven counties that reside in seven battleground states fit our criteria and were selected to be Axiom’s Battleground Counties.

Polls conducted in June and July showed strong Trump leads in most Battleground Counties. But by September 8th, Trump had seen his mid-Summer gains completely wiped away with the exception of Washoe County, NV, where his lead had grown from 12 points to 17 points. Additionally, three new counties, which were added to monitor whether certain original Battleground Counties may have been outliers to their normally predictive nature, showed much more competitive races in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Hamilton County, OH, showed Clinton with a single point lead compared to Trump’s seven-point lead in Sandusky County, OH. In Pennsylvania, Northampton County showed Trump with an eight-point lead compared to the 15-point lead he enjoyed in working class Luzerne County. The race seemed to be slowly moving towards Hillary Clinton.

In mid-October, with certain counties appearing to possibly be outliers, the decision was made to conduct statewide polling in each of the battleground states. Polling also continued into the ten Axiom Battleground Counties and, as of Oct. 23rd, we find a presidential campaign where Hillary Clinton has the clear advantage over Donald Trump, but we do not find a presidential campaign that is out of reach for Trump. The odds are stacked against Trump, as our data and data from most reliable sources shows, but he has slim leads or is within the margin of error in his must-win states. Trump would need to overcome a deficit in Colorado, break through a current tie in Florida and maintain small leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio to have a chance to accumulate 270 electoral votes. Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania appear to be out of his reach as he is at least three points behind in each of those states in the closing weeks of the campaign. A pathway has been charted, but data also shows that Trump could also be the victim of a clean sweep in these states.

Three New Counties Added to Axiom Battleground Counties Tracking Conducted by Remington Research

RESULTS & UPDATES HERE > PRESIDENTIAL RACE MONITORING

September 8, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

Axiom Strategies and Remington Research have added three new Battleground Counties to the ABC monitoring in order to track the race in an additional swing state, Wisconsin, and monitor whether Sandusky Co. (OH) and Luzerne Co. (PA) may be outliers to their historically predictive nature. Hillary Clinton leads in 4 Battleground Counties, while Trump holds solid leads in 5 and a narrow lead in Florida. See the full results and most recent updates here.

Rooney Still Leads in FL-19 GOP Primary

RESULTS HERE > FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY SURVEY

August 29, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

Kansas City, MO – Remington Research Group has completed a second public and independent survey of likely Republican primary voters in Florida’s 19th Congressional District. The survey was conducted August 29, 2016. 1,119 likely Republican primary voters participated in the survey and the margin of error is +/-2.9%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee. The first survey was conducted August 14 through August 15, 2016.

The data show that Francis Rooney holds 46% of the vote and leads his closest competitor, Chauncey Goss, by 15 points. The other candidate, Dan Bongino trails by 30 points with 16% support. Just 7% of likely Republican voters remain undecided.

Full ballot results below | Full Survey Here

The candidates in the Republican primary election for United States Congress are Francis Rooney, Dan Bongino and Chauncey Goss. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Francis Rooney: 46%
Chauncey Goss: 31%
Dan Bongino: 16%
Undecided: 7%

The survey also found that 64% of likely voters have already cast their votes in the race. Of those that say they have voted, Rooney leads Goss by twelve points, 47% to 35%. Bongino garners 15% of the early vote with 3% refusing to say who they voted for.

The results of the first independent survey conducted by Remington Research Group in this campaign were questioned by the trailing candidates. NBC-2 News went as far as to write blatantly false information about the survey in addition to calling the poll "bogus."

"Remington Research Group conducted a second independent and public survey of this race even with the scrutiny we faced when we released numbers two weeks ago," said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group. “Rooney’s lead remains solid and with two thirds of voters having already cast their ballot, this race is all but over."

Bond continued, "Chauncey Goss alleged that he was tied in his internal polling. It is interesting to note that Goss' campaign finance reports do not include any payments to polling firms, but either way, tomorrow we will find out who is right."

Remington Research Group is a polling firm that specializes in automated IVR technology. The firm was founded in an effort to provide more reliable and affordable polling for campaigns throughout the country. Remington Research Group surveys have been featured in RealClearPolitics, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, the Wall Street Journal and numerous local media throughout the United States. For more information visit Remington Research Group

Rooney Leads by Wide Margin

RESULTS HERE > FL-19 GOP PRIMARY SURVEY

August 16, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

Kansas City, MO – Remington Research Group has completed a public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Florida’s 19th Congressional District. The survey was conducted August 14 through August 15, 2016. 1,606 likely Republican primary voters participated in the survey and the margin of error is +/-2.4%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee.

The data show that Francis Rooney holds 45% of the vote and leads his closest competitor, Chauncey Goss, by 16 points. The other candidate, Dan Bongino trails by 30 points with 15% support. 11% of likely Republican voters remain undecided.

Full ballot results below | Full Survey Here

Q: The candidates in the Republican primary election for United States Congress are Francis Rooney, Dan Bongino and Chauncey Goss. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Francis Rooney: 45%
Chauncey Goss: 29%
Dan Bongino: 15%
Undecided: 11%

In addition to his ballot strength, Rooney possesses the strongest image rating of all Republican candidates. 51% of likely Republican primary voters view him favorably with 24% viewing him unfavorably. Goss is viewed favorably by 43% compared to 25% who view him unfavorably.

Rooney's support comes from Republican voters who self-identify as very conservative or somewhat conservative. Goss is supported by those who self-identify as moderate or liberal. The survey finds that 79% of likely Republican primary voters consider themselves to be either very conservative or somewhat conservative.

"Francis Rooney is currently in a commanding position. His image remains over 51% and his ballot share is approaching the majority mark," said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group. "Given that this is a multi-candidate race; it is hard to imagine a situation where Rooney does not receive at least a plurality."

Remington Research Group is a polling firm that specializes in automated IVR technology. The firm was founded in an effort to provide more reliable and affordable polling for campaigns throughout the country. Remington Research Group surveys have been featured in RealClearPolitics, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, the Wall Street Journal and numerous local media throughout the United States. For more information visit Remington Research Group

Paul Ryan Dominating Paul Nehlen in WI-1 GOP Primary

RESULTS HERE > WI-01 GOP PRIMARY SURVEY

August 4, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

Paul Ryan leads his Republican primary challenger, Paul Nehlen, by 66 points five days ahead of the election. Ryan leads with 80% to 14% for Nehlen with 6% undecided.

Paul Ryan’s image in the district mirrors the ballot. Ryan is extremely popular in his district with a favorable rating of 80% compared to an unfavorable rating of just 14%. Nehlen, on the other hand, is viewed unfavorably by 47% of likely Republican primary voters and viewed favorably by just 16%.

The Republican nominee for President, Donald Trump, is somewhat popular in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District with 52% of Republicans viewing Trump favorably and 32% viewing him unfavorably.

"It is clear, according to the most recent data, that Paul Ryan will win by a wide margin on Tuesday. The numbers have moved in Ryan’s favor since we last surveyed this race, indicating likely Republican voters there do not appreciate the attacks on their Congressman,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group.

OK-1: Bridenstine Leads GOP Primary Field by Large Margin

RESULTS HERE > OK-01 GOP PRIMARY SURVEY

June 9, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

Remington Research Group has completed a public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District. The public survey was conducted June 5, 2016. 789 likely Republican primary voters participated in the survey and the margin of error is +/-3.6%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee.

Jim Bridenstine is popular amongst likely Republican primary voters with 70% of those surveyed indicating they view him favorably and just 12% seeing him unfavorably. His closest challenger, Tom Atkinson is known by roughly half of voters with 26% viewing Atkinson favorably and 22% viewing him unfavorably.

Bridenstine’s strong image translates into a dominating ballot share. Bridenstine collect 67% of support compared to 14% for Atkinson with 15% remaining undecided. A third candidate, Evelyn Rogers gets 4% support.

Full ballot results below | Full Survey Here

The candidates in the Republican primary election for United States Congress are Jim Bridenstine, Tom Atkinson and Evelyn Rogers. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?

Jim Bridenstine: 67%
Tom Atkinson: 14%
Evelyn Rogers: 4%
Undecided: 15%

“Jim Bridenstine remains extremely popular with Republican primary voters. He wins every demographic and there does not appear to be a window for another candidate to compete in this election,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group.

Remington Research and Axiom Strategies Launch Presidential Battleground Counties Tracking

RESULTS & UPDATES HERE > PRESIDENTIAL RACE MONITORING

June 6, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

Axiom Strategies, in collaboration with Remington Research Group, has studied election results in eight battleground states to identify Axiom’s Battleground Counties. These counties historically reflect statewide results, so monitoring them will be key in analyzing the 2016 presidential race. Check back regularly to see the latest polling in these counties, which may determine the next President of the United States.

Luttrell Leads Field in TN-8

RESULTS HERE > TN-08 GOP PRIMARY SURVEY

March 9, 2016

Contact: Titus Bond
Phone: 913-636-1532 (cell)
Email: tbond@remingtonresearchgroup.com

Remington Research Group has completed a public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Tennessee’s 8th Congressional District. The survey was conducted February 29 through March 1, 2016. 686 likely Republican primary voters participated in the survey and the margin of error is +/-3.5%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee.

The data show that Mark Luttrell would receive 26% of the vote, and the next closest candidate is George Flinn with 11%. All other potential candidates are in the single digits. 38% of voters are undecided.

Full ballot results below | Full Survey Here

Q: If the candidates in the Republican primary election for United States Congress were Brian Kelsey, David Kustoff, Mark Luttrell, George Flinn, Tom Leatherwood and Steve Basar, for whom would you vote?

Mark Luttrell: 26%
George Flinn: 11%
Brian Kelsey: 9%
David Kustoff: 8%
Tom Leatherwood: 7%
Steve Basar: 1%
Undecided: 38%

In addition to his ballot strength, Luttrell possesses the strongest image rating of all the potential Republican candidates. 43% of likely Republican primary voters view him favorably with only 5% viewing him unfavorably. This is by far the strongest image rating of the field by more than double his nearest competitor.